Want to know why Barack Obama is in trouble?

To paraphrase James Carville’s famous explanation of why
Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992 (It’s
the economy, stupid)…

It’s the Zoomers,
stupid!

Whether you think they deserve to be or not, the fact is Obama’s numbers are collapsing. And it’s driven in no small degree by the Zoomers – and in particular, the older half of the Zoomer demographic, the 65-plus (“seniors”).

Let’s take a look.

First, let’s establish that…

It matters what
Zoomers think because they control the ballot box

You know all the hype about the huge youth vote, Obamamania,
and all that? Forget it. Didn’t amount to a hill of beans.

In the 2008 presidential election, the 18-24 voters
represented just 9.5% of all votes cast. (This was only 1 percentage point
higher than Bush-Kerry, by the way.)

The Zoomer vote (45-plus) represented 58.2% of all votes
cast. In other words, for every “youth” ballot, there were six Zoomer ballots.

Let’s also note that…

Among “seniors”
(65-plus), McCain won by 53% to 46%.

Obama won the general election by 53% to 46%, so this is a
swing of 14 points.

OK, so along comes health care reform.

I won’t waste your time trying to navigate almost 4,000
pages of legislation – never mind that it was frequently revised. Suffice to
say that the seniors lined up against it, and with increasing stridency.

 

 

 

Some wild stuff happened out there (to put it mildly). Seniors were scared for lots of reasons – some were thoughtful and substantive, but many hysterical and
manipulative.

In the end, however, there was no question the health care bills (both Pelosi in the House and Reid in the Senate) did
threaten to cut benefits. For example, under Obama’s own calculations, there
would be $200 billion in cuts, over the next 10 years, to Medicare Advantage,
an enhanced level of Medicare (the government-paid coverage that all
Americans get at age 65).

Does this matter? Well, in Massachusetts,
where a few weeks ago the Republican won a shocking victory in a state that Obama carried by 26 points (and in
Teddy Kennedy’s seat) there are 175,000 seniors enrolled in Medicare Advantage.
How do you think  they voted?

Since Zoomers represent such a big percentage of the
electorate, they can drag down a president’s poll numbers in a hurry.

Gallup
reported that Obama had the steepest approval rating drop since they began
polling. At the start of 2010, here was the picture – and note the difference
in age groups:

Obama’s approval rating among men 18-49 was 51% (versus 43%
disapproval). Burt among men 50-plus, it broke the other way, 55-41%. That’s
almost a 20-point swing.

Obama’s approval rating among women 18-49 broke 58% – 37% in
his favor, but among women 50-plus it narrowed to 50%-43%.

The numbers continued to fall as the health care bill got
into more trouble. By the eve of the Massachusetts
election, the “seniors” segment of the Zoomer age group strongly opposed it, by
a margin of 62% to 35%. And  note that
the 65+ age group, all by themselves, represented 20% of the votes cast in the
2008 presidential election…more than double the “youth” vote.

Okay, so off they go to the polls in Massachusetts and we saw the shock
Republican win.

What was significant is that the “youth” vote (under 30)
collapsed, and the “older” vote increased, compared to the 2008 presidential
election. The under-30 vote dropped from 25% of the total to 15% of the total,
while the over-30 vote (of which more than 60% are over-45) increased from 47%
of the total to 57% of the total.

It couldn’t be clearer: it’s the Zoomers who are hurting
Obama right now.

There are important lessons for Canada here, because Zoomers dominate the ballot box in the same way.

It makes a strong case for Canadian Zoomers to start
demonstrating a little muscle, no? Joining  CARP (www.carp.ca)
would be a great start.

 

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